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TEMPUS IV JOINT PROJECT

№ 159173 –TEMPUS-I-DE – TEMPUS – JPCR

ODESSA STATE ENVIRONMENTAL

UNIVERSITY - ODESSA

ACADEMIC DISCIPLINE
3.4.1 LONG-TERM AGROMETEOROLOGICAL

FORECASTS


Field of Science: Natural Sciences

Professional Area: 8.070801 «Ecology and Environmental Protection»

Speciality - Agroecology

Degree: Master Degree

Form of Study: Full-Time

Duration of the Studies: 1.5 year

Lecturer of the Discipline: Professor A.M. Polovyi

Associate Professor L.Yu. Bozhko

Odessa – 2010

I. PREFACE
Long-term Agrometeorological Forecasts is a field of scientific and practical activity, which is aimed at studying influence mechanisms of current, inertial and expected agrometeorological factors on growth, development and formation of crop productivity and prevision of consequences of vermin and disease occurrence as well as use of these mechanisms at making long-term agrometeorological forecasts.

The discipline generalizes and forms conceptual-and-categorial, theoretical, methodological apparatus, summarizes agrometeorological scientific and practical activity data. The syllabus is developed pursuant to the typical «Statute of organization of educational process in higher educational establishments».

The study of the discipline is aimed to provide the students with the up-to-date academic background on mechanisms of formation of crop productivity and moisture supply during a vegetation period in connection with agrometeorological conditions.

The study of the discipline is based on principles of integration of theoretical and practical background, acquired by the master degree students during study of general fundamental disciplines (Mathematics, Physics, Ecology, Soil Science) and normative disciplines for specific purposes (Atmosphere Physics, Agricultural Meteorology, Climatology, Synoptic Meteorology, Physical Geography and Plant-Growing, Multidimensional Statistical Analysis, Methods of Data Processing and Analysis and other).

The study of the discipline presupposes lectures and practical studies, self-studies of the master degree students, sitting a final test and industrial practice.

On the basis of the acquired background a master degree student shall be able to distinguish and take into account the persistence of main agrometeorological factors, apply statistical multiple-factor dependences, make various types of long-term agrometeorological forecasts, use a computer.

The discipline is fully provided with the syllabi, the study guides, textbooks and tutorials.

Methods of control of the master degree students’ background are based on division of the discipline syllabus into individual logically associated module units which include estimation of the students’ gaining the knowledge and mastering the skills upon completion of these modules. The discipline syllabus is divided into 3 units.

^ II. DIVISION OF THE DISCIPLINE INTO UNITS

MODULE 3.4.1

MODULE 3.4.2

MODULE 3.4.3

Forecasts of Wintering for Winter Grain-Crops.

1. Object, Tasks and Prospects for Development of Long-Term Forecasts

2. Biological Conditions for Formation of Resistance to Cold and Frost-Resistance in Winter Crops. Forecasts of the State of Winter Crops for the Moment of Vegetation Completion.

3. Critical Temperature of Winterkilling for Winter Crops. Methods of Critical Temperature Determination.

4. Methods for Determination of Minimum Soil Temperature in the Tillering Node Depth.

5. Forecasts of the State of Winter Crops for the Moment of Vegetation Renewal

Long-Term Forecasts of Quantity and Quality of Crop Yields.

1. Mechanisms of Crop Productivity Formation.

2. Forecasts of Grain-Crop Yields.

3. Forecasts of Industrial Crop Yields.

4. Forecasts of Cereal Crop Yields.

5. Forecasts of Quality in Crop Yields

Forecasts of Crops Heat and Moisture Supply in the Vegetation Period and Supply of Productive Moisture under Them in Various Interphase Periods of Their Development.

1. Mechanisms of Formation of Productive Moisture Supply in Soil in Various Seasons. Forecast of Productive Moisture Supply at the Beginning of the Vegetation Period.

2. Forecasts of Productive Moisture Supply for Different Crops

3. Forecasts for Provision of Crops with Moisture.

4. Forecasts of Norms and Terms for Crop Irrigation

75 hours of academic work – 3 credits
^ III. DISTRIBUTION OF ACADEMIC TIME


Code


Lecturer


Exam (form)

Training Time


Hours Total


Credits

Lectures

Practical Studies (Seminars)

Self Studies

3.4.1

1. A.M. Polovyi, Dr. of Sc. (Geogr.), Professor

2. L.Yu. Bozhko,

Associate professor, PhD (Geogr.)

Exam (written)


20


20


35


75


3,0

^ IV. TABLE OF THE DISCIPLINE CONTENTS

Theme #

Description

Academic Hours

3.4.1.1

Forecasts of Wintering for Winter Grain-Crops




1

Object, Tasks and Prospects for Development of Long-Term Forecasts

1

2

Biological Conditions for Formation of Resistance to Cold and Frost-Resistance in Winter Crops. Forecasts of the State of Winter Crops for the Moment of Vegetation Completion

1

3

Critical Temperature of Winterkilling for Winter Crops. Methods of Critical Temperature Determination

2

4

Methods for Determination of Minimum Soil Temperature in the Tillering Node Depth

2

5

Forecasts of the State of Winter Crops for the Moment of Vegetation Renewal

2

3.4.1.2

Long-Term Forecasts of Quantity and Quality of Crop Yields




1

Mechanisms of Crop Productivity Formation

1

2

Forecasts of Grain-Crop Yields

2

3

Forecasts of Industrial Crop Yields

2

4

Forecasts of Cereal Crop Yields

2

5

Forecasts of Quality in Crop Yields

1

3.4.1.3

Forecasts of Crops Heat and Moisture Supply in the Vegetation Period and Supply of Productive Moisture under Them in Various Interphase Periods of Their Development




1

Mechanisms of Formation of Productive Moisture Supply in Soil in Various Seasons. Forecast of Productive Moisture Supply at the Beginning of the Vegetation Period

1

2

Forecasts of Productive Moisture Supply for Different Crops

1

3

Forecasts for Provision of Crops with Moisture

1

4

Forecasts of Norms and Terms for Crop Irrigation

1


V. Practical and Seminar Studies

Theme #

Description

Academic Hours

1.

Calculation of Wintering Indices for Winter Grain-Crops

5

2.

Calculation of Provision of Crops with Moisture Indices

4

3.

Quantity and Quality of Yield and Methods for Their Forecasting

7

4.

Seminar. Agrometeorological Conditions of Formation of Crop Yields

2

5.

Seminar. Main Positive and Negative Characteristics of Various Types of Irrigation

2


^ VI. FORMS OF EXTRA-CURRICULA STUDIES
1. Methods - 12 hours
1. Study of methods for long-term forecasts - 5 hours

2. Verification of various kinds of agrometeorological forecasts – 2 hours.

3. Preparation and fulfillment of home tasks on a topic of choice – 5 hours

^ 2. Preparation for and writing library-research papers – 8 hours
To consolidate the background acquired at a lecture, practical and seminar studies, students fulfill independent scientific and library-research paper on a topic, selected from the ones offered by a teacher. A student uses the recommended literature and the information obtained through the Internet. A paper must be submitted as a printed version of 7 – 10 sheets (A-4 format). The submitted work is to be defended by a student during his seminar studies.

^ 3. Student self-preparation for current control

of the studied topics – 15 hours
Current control is carried out in the form of a written test on each of the modules. In accordance with the normative documents, 5 hours are assigned for preparation to each of the tests.

^ V. STUDY techniques
Study of the discipline presupposes lectures, laboratory-and-practical and seminar studies. Seminars take place in the form of discussions between a lecturer and master degree students on the topics which were delivered at lectures, cosidered at laboratory and practical studies and dealt with during the self study of the discipline units.

During a semester current control of the knowledge in the form of written tests is exercised.

The study of the discipline ends with an examination. Evaluation is carried out using the seven-point system. The results of the examination are announced no later than 2 days upon sitting the examination.

LITERATURE


  1. Hydrometeoro-logical Publishing House, 1984: A Guide to Making Agrometeorological Forecasts. Leningrad, vol. 1 and 2. (In Russian)

Руководство по составлению агрометеорологических прогнозов. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат. Том 1 и 2. 1984.


  1. Razumova, L.A., 1977: Methodology for Making a Forecast of Reserves of Productive Moisture in the Soil at the Beginning of the Vegetation Period. A Study Guide on Making a Forecast of Productive Moisture in the Soil at the Beginning of the Vegetation Period. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad. (In Russian)

Разумова Л.А. Методика составления прогноза запасов продуктивной влаги в почве к началу вегетационного периода. – Методические указания по составлению прогноза запасов продуктивной влаги к началу вегетационного периода. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1977.


  1. Svisyuk, I.V., 1991: Agrometeorological Forecasts, Computation, Substantiation. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad. (In Russian)

Свисюк И.В. Агрометеорологические прогнозы, расчеты, обоснование. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1991.


  1. Davitaya, F.F., 1964: Forecast of the Supply of Warmth and Certain Aspects of Seasonal Development of Nature. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Moscow. (In Russian)

Давитая Ф.Ф. Прогноз обеспеченности теплом и некоторые проблемы сезонного развития природы. – М.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1964.


  1. Lichikaki, V.M., 1974: Overwintering of Winter Crops. Kolos, Moscow. (In Russian)

Личикаки В.М. Перезимовка озимых культур. – М.: Колос, 1974.


  1. Maksimenkova, T.A., 1979: The Method for Prediction of Winter Crop State at the Time of Termination of Their Vegetation. № 2. Meteorology and Hydrology. (In Russian)

Максименкова Т.А. Метод прогноза состояния озимых зерновых культур ко времени прекращения их вегетации. – Метеорология и гидрология, 1979, № 2.


  1. Moiseychik, V.A., 1975: Agrometeorological Conditions and Overwintering of Winter Crops. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad. (In Russian)

Моисейчик В.А. Агрометеорологические условия и перезимовка озимых культур. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1975.


  1. Berdnik, A.A., Dmitrenko, V.P., 1982: A Study Guide on Making a Forecast for an Area of Winter Crops with Various Thinning. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 12 pp. (In Russian)

Бердник А.А., Дмитренко В.П. Методические указания по прогнозу площадей озимых культур с различной изреженностью. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1982. – 12 с.


  1. Ulanova, O.S., 1977: A Study Guide on Drawing up Long-Term Forecasts of Winter Wheat Yield in the Main Areas of its Cultivation. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad. (In Russian)

Уланова Е.С. Методические указания по составлению долгосрочных прогнозов урожайности озимой пшеницы в основных районах ее возделывания. – Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1977.


  1. Polevoy, A.N., 1981: A Learner’s Guide to Development of Dynamic Statistical Methods for Crop Yield Forecasting. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Moscow, 36 pp. (In Russian)

Полевой А.Н. Методическое пособие по разработке динамико-статистических методов прогнозирования урожайности сельскохозяйственных культур. – М.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1981. – 36 с.


  1. Polovyi, A.N., Bozhko, L.Yu., 2007: Long-Term Agrometeorological Forecasts. KNT, Kyiv. (In Ukrainian)

Польовий А.М., Божко Л.Ю. Довгострокові агрометеорологічні прогнози. - К.: КНТ. 2007.

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